Expectations are always high in the Big D, and the Dallas Cowboys’ 2022 NFL odds reflect those aspirations, fueled by one of the softest schedules in the NFL and a feverish public betting fanbase.
Warranted or not, the Cowboys’ futures have them pegged for the playoffs as slim favorites to win the NFC East with a double-digit win total. In a twist from past seasons, if Dallas is going to live up to the hype, it won’t be because of its star-studded skill positions but rather an opportunistic stop unit headlined by a pair of the most promising young defenders in the league.
Here’s your NFL betting preview for the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +1,800 |
| To win conference | +850 |
| To win division | +135 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 10 (Over -110) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -250 / No +195 |
Best futures bet: Win NFC East (+135)
The Cowboys opened as +110 faves to win the NFC East in 2022, which would make them the first back-to-back champs for the division since the Philadelphia Eagles in 2003-2004.
The rival Eagles have been the offseason darling for early-bird bettors, moving from +250 to +165 to claim the division crown, which has, in turn, tacked on about 25 cents to Dallas’ division price. Dak Prescott is still the best quarterback in the NFC East, with questions remaining around Jalen Hurts’ maturation and Carson Wentz’s return to the division. And then there’s Daniel Jones…
Dallas backers will hang on tight for a torturous home stretch with three of the final four games on the road, save for a Week 16 home date with the Eagles. That contest could decide the NFC East and it sets up well for the Cowboys (-3.5), as it’s Philly’s third straight road game, played on a short week (Saturday), and lands on Xmas Eve.
Dallas Cowboys betting overview
What will win bets: Star power
Dallas has a number of guys who can sell jerseys and swing a game. Prescott finished last season among the Top 5 in a number of advanced QB metrics (No. 3 in QB DVOA at Football Outsiders), and while his receiving corps isn’t as loaded in 2022, he’s still a guy who can carry the team. That’s doubly true if WR CeeDee Lamb makes the leap to an elite receiver.
The brightest stars on the other side of the ball greatly impacted outcomes last year. Linebacker Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs dialed up game-changing plays (combined 13 sacks, 3 FF, 11 INTs, 2 TDs) that helped make the Cowboys the best bet in the NFL with a 13-4 ATS record in the regular season.
What will lose bets: Defensive regression
Holding on to defensive coordinator Dan Quinn was a big offseason win, as this stop unit is the heart and soul of the organization. That said, repeating the chaos caused in 2021 is a very tall task, even with those standouts mentioned above. The Cowboys stop unit wowed with a plus-14 turnover differential, leading the league in interceptions (26) last season.
But when Big D wasn’t snatching wayward passes, it was giving up chunk yardage (29th in yards per completion allowed). It’s a high-risk/high-reward approach from Quinn, and those dangerous defenders won’t be catching opponents by surprise in 2022. Takeaways are tough to replicate game-to-game, and we often see teams with extreme positive turnover differential suffer steep regression the following year.
Dallas didn’t face the toughest slate of QBs in 2021, and four of its five losses did come to guys named Brady, Mahomes, Carr, and Murray.
More Covers NFL betting analysis
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Dallas Cowboys game-by-game odds
Dallas is the betting favorite in 11 games this season, with a pair of contests sitting at pick’em. Splitting the difference on those two toss-ups, the Cowboys’ lookahead lines have them posting 12 wins, which is two more than the Vegas total of 10 (Over -110).
Seven of those games have Dallas inside a field goal on either side of the spread (+/-), an ATS window that has produced a 7-15 SU mark and 5-17 ATS count since 2016 (Prescott’s rookie year). On the flip of this, America’s Team is a favorite of -6 or more in five games, with the Cowboys owning a 23-5 SU and 20-7-1 ATS record when laying six or more points the past six seasons.
The standard strength of schedule (based on 2021 win percentage) hands Dallas the weakest slate of foes (T-31 in SOS with Philadelphia), and my QB SOS (based on strength of opposing QBs) puts the Cowboys up against the 29th toughest lineup of passers.
| 1 | vs. Tampa Bay | +2 | 52 |
| 2 | vs. Cincinnati | -1.5 | 50 |
| 3 | @ N.Y. Giants | -4.5 | 47.5 |
| 4 | vs. Washington | -6.5 | 48 |
| 5 | @ L.A. Rams | +3.5 | 51.5 |
| 6 | @ Philadelphia | PK | 49.5 |
| 7 | vs. Detroit | -7.5 | 49 |
| 8 | vs. Chicago | -7.5 | 47.5 |
| 9 | BYE | ||
| 10 | @ Green Bay | +4.5 | 50 |
| 11 | @ Minnesota | PK | 49 |
| 12 | vs. N.Y. Giants | -7 | 47.5 |
| 13 | vs. Indianapolis | -2.5 | 48.5 |
| 14 | vs. Houston | -8 | 48 |
| 15 | @ Jacksonville | -3.5 | 48.5 |
| 16 | vs. Philadelphia | -3.5 | 49.5 |
| 17 | @ Tennessee | +1.5 | 48 |
| 18 | @ Washington | -2.5 | 44 |
Dallas Cowboys pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
The Cowboys were an Under bet for me at 10.5 wins, due to the likely turnover regression and downgrades at wide receiver this off-season. Mike McCarthy is likely coaching his last season in Dallas.
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